Will rough seas, clouds,
Delay missile shield protecting
Us from holocaust?
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis at Arms Control Wonk.com has a worst case scenario about the attempted satellite shoot that some others think is plausible:
I am very worried about the debris creation — particularly the debris that the light-weight interceptor will kick into higher orbits when it hits the massive (bus-sized) satellite. Thnk, as Geoff Forden suggested, of a ping pong ball hitting a superball.
Virtually all the debris should come down quickly. Cartwright said 50 percent would come down within two orbits, with the rest coming down in weeks and months. That seems plausible, at first blush.
But those two orbits could be hairy and some of the debris will remain in orbit. Michael Griffin, NASA Administrator, said there are good times and bad times to conduct the intercept, based on the position of the ISS but that bad times are not all that bad comparing the risk to an order of magnitude lower than flying the shuttle.
Last I checked, the PRAN [probability risk assessment number] for the shuttle was 1 in 100. Extrapolating, there would be only a 1 in 1000 chance of wiping out the ISS.
Great.