Spinning the Dance of Death

[post moved to this evening from early in the morning of 1 August]

Percentage Change in US Military Fatalities in Iraq from June to July 2003-2007 (updated at 10am 11pm 5pm on 2 August)
  June July % change
2003 30 48 +60%
2004 42 54 +29%
2005 78 54 -31%
2006 61 42 -30%
2007* 101 74 78
80 81
80
-27% -23%
-21% -20%
-21%
*may not yet include all casualties for the month

The US military death toll has dropped from June to July in each of the previous two years, for whatever reason, and this year it dropped slightly less than it did in 2005 or 2006. July 2005 was followed by an August where casualties jumped up to 85 (+57%) and in August 2006 they went up to 65 (+51%).

If seven more casualties get one more casualty gets reported for the month (at least six of those from July 2006 weren’t reported until 1 August or later), that “lowest death toll in eight months” or “lowest death toll this year” figure shortens up to a tie with only four months earlier, which tracks the trends of the last two years (three months in 2006, four months in 2005) as well.

[As of 5pm Pacific time on 2 August, the death toll for US military personnel in Iraq had reached 81, which is equal to the figures for February and March this year. July no longer has the lowest death toll this year (it’s tied for lowest, but it could still go up), nor is it the lowest toll in eight months as the AP trumpeted even before the month was over. It’s the lowest in three months.]

[As of 3 August, the figure had been dropped down to 80. Michael White at the ICCC responded to an inquiry by saying that a death reported on 19 July had not been officially confirmed and was removed from the count.]

But rather than wait to make sure the numbers were all in before proclaiming success (does that sound familiar?) the AP for some reason decided to run with the story even before the month was over, despite the almost certain likelihood that a few more American servicemen would be reported on the casualty list during the first days of August.